#ARElections: I’ll Risk Looking Absolutely Ridiculous with These Election Day Predictions

Lance Turner on Today's THV

Click for a quick preview of Tuesday's races

(Video: Click here for a segment from Today’s THV This Morning Saturday on what to expect on Tuesday, Election Day, and here for a report on early voting from Saturday night.)

Earlier, I noted Arkansas Business Publisher Jeff Hankins’ election predictions. Others are weighing in with their’s as well. So how ’bout I play this fool’s game and give it shot, too? It’ll make our team coverage with Today’s THV on Election Night all the more interesting, as viewers can watch my on-air reaction — in real time on THV2.comas all my predictions crumble!

U.S. Senate, Democrat – With three candidates in this race, a runoff is certainly possible. And recent polls have shown incumbent Blanche Lincoln unable to cross the 50 percent mark to avoid one. But she leads Lt. Gov. Bill Halter by anywhere from 9-12 points.

Meanwhile, third-candidate D.C. Morrison polls with 6-7 percent of the vote.

All this leaves a big chunk of undecided votes. Which way do they fall?

I think most stand pat with the Devil They Know, Blanche Lincoln, a moderate who is just fine for conservative Arkansas. Her position at the top of a key committee, Agriculture, is also important to Arkansans.

But I also think Morrison gets his 6 percent of the vote — maybe more — with anti-incumbent voters casting ballots against Washington, against politics as usual. Some of that sentiment helps Halter, who moves some of the undecideds into his column.

But at the end of the night, Lincoln leads but doesn’t break 50, and she and Halter head for a runoff. Three. More. Weeks. Don’t ask me what happens after that.

Holt, on the stump in Sherwood

U.S. Senate, Republican – Here’s what’s been the conventional wisdom: U.S Rep. John Boozman ends up in a runoff with State Sen. Gilbert Baker, narrowly defeating his primary challenger for the No. 2 spot, Jim Holt. With everyone going to polls for sitting 3rd District Congressman Boozman in northwest Arkansas, Holt has little support left to draw from.

But: I think Tea Partiers and, again, the anti-incumbent voters come out strong for Holt. Meanwhile, voters in Baker’s home county of Faulkner will throw more weight in the Democratic primary due to Robbie Wills’ 2nd District House candidacy.

So I’m going to go out on a limb and say Holt, with little money and organization, will find himself in a three-week battle with Boozman starting Wednesday. Baker, with more money and better organization than Holt, is shut out in a squeaker. It’s gonna hurt.

U.S. House, District 1, Democrat – Tim Wooldridge and Chad Causey, the chief of staff of retiring District 1 Rep. Marion Berry, make the runoff.

U.S. House, District 2, Democrat – Arkansas House Speaker Robbie Wills finds himself in a runoff with State Sen. Joyce Elliott. David Boling, the chief of staff of retiring District 2 Rep. Vic Snyder, makes a respectable showing.

U.S. House, District 2, Republican – Tim Griffin wins outright versus Scott Wallace.

U.S. House, District 3, Republican – Steve Womack in a runoff with Cecile Bledsoe. Why not?

So there you have it. My first official go at Election Day predictions in Arkansas. For others prognostications, including a look at other races, check our friends at Blake’s Think Tank and The Tolbert Report.

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4 Responses

  1. …. and then there is Trevor Drown waiting to see who will join him in the general election for US Senate.

  2. […] Posts #ARElections: I'll Risk Looking Absolutely Ridiculous with These Election Day PredictionsJust Puttin' That Out There: Jeff Hankins' Election Predictions#ARElections: A Sampling of Tuesday […]

  3. […] Posts #ARElections: I'll Risk Looking Absolutely Ridiculous with These Election Day PredictionsJust Puttin' That Out There: Jeff Hankins' Election Predictions#ARElections: A Sampling of Tuesday […]

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